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Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Speculation: Deducing Black Friday Console Sales From Infoscout's Report

WARNING: MAJOR AMOUNT OF RANDOM SPECULATION INCOMING. I likely made numerous mistakes, take all you read below as a grain of salt.

Earlier this week Infoscout released a report giving early Black Friday data, this is the just of it:

In my opinion the report makes VGChartz look extremely reliable :P, as it was based off a mere 1,500 console purchases across 102k receipts (to show how small a data pool that is, last year over 2,050,000 home consoles were sold in the US on Black Friday week, though I'm not sure how many were sold on Black Friday itself), but it still does give us an extremely rough guess of what to expect. Especially since we have Sony's 2.1 million PS4's sold report. In it they say 700,000+ of those 2.1 million sales are from the EU, taking that number and comparing it to the 1,165,601 PS4's sold (if VGC is to be believed) before the EU launch allows us to deduce that approx. 230K PS4's were sold last week in NA/SA. Then you can also take away around 25-40K for sales from "Other" NA/SA regions, and you're left with 190-205K PS4's sold in the US last week.

Using that as a base you get these numbers from the Infoscout report for the day of Black Friday:
Xbox One: 385-415K
Xbox 360: 380-410K
PS3: 190-205K
PS4: 190-205K
Wii U: 74-80K
Wii: 10-13K
Total: 1,229,000-1,328,000

Now there's a few things wrong with that list for sure. First of all, the Wii sold 38K last week in the US and even though the list is just one day of sales I highly doubt it sold only 10K. Second of all, this is based off the sales of the PS4 in the US for the entire week, I'm sure the retailers held back most of the stock until Black Friday, but I can't be sure about all of it. But still I believe it gives an extremely rough estimate of sales on Black Friday day. My personal estimate for all of Black Friday week is:
Xbox 360: 650K
Xbox One: 420K
PS3: 350K
Wii U: 215K
PS4: 205K
Wii: 170K
Total: 2,015,000

Remember take all of what I'm saying as a grain of salt, also if you find a mistake feel free to tell me so I can fix it. What are your guesses for last week?

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